November 1st, 2016
By Carolyn Lochhead
You have to go all the way back to Alf Landon in 1936 to find a Republican presidential nominee doing as badly as Donald Trump is in California, according to a new Golden State poll released Tuesday.
Even Landon got 31.7 percent of the vote, while Trump is polling at 30 percent, according to the poll of 1,250 likely voters, conducted jointly by the Hoover Institution and the Bill Lane Center for the American West, both out of Stanford University.
Those numbers spell bad news for Republicans on two fronts, said Hoover research fellow Bill Whalen.
The most immediate is the effect on three vulnerable House GOP incumbents: Darrell Issa in northern San Diego County, Steve Knight in northeastern Los Angeles County and Jeff Denham in the Central Valley’s Stanislaus County.
“If I’m one of those” three, Whalen said, “I’m very concerned that my party’s nominee is polling at 30 percent.”
More broadly, Trump’s polling may be a warning that the national Republican Party risks following the California GOP, which once dominated national politics, into oblivion.
“You look across the board and Trump is just soundly rejected everywhere,” Whalen said, whether by race, gender, income and most age groups.
Trump leads in just two categories: conservatives and voters age 65 or older.
“That’s not a good formula” for a state increasingly dominated by younger and more liberal voters, Whalen said. Trump trails Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in California among whites, blacks, Hispanics and Asians, among men and women, among voters of all education and income levels and among liberals and moderates.
“You can write off some of this, maybe a lot of this, to Donald Trump,” Whalen said, “but the fact is Republicans have a lot of work to do” with the growing voter blocs that already dominate California and are growing across the country.
Read the article Here